North Sea production is declining while the UK remains heavily dependent on gas across heating, industry and electricity systems. At the same time, policymakers are assuming that demand will fall rapidly as the energy transition accelerates.

But heat-pump rollout remains well below targets, industrial heat is proving difficult to decarbonise at scale, and import dependence continues to rise. The question is no longer whether the UK should reduce gas dependence — but whether domestic production is being reduced faster than realistic demand can fall.